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Stock Comets

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A "comet" is a thematic basket organized around a trigger event — the head is the catalyst (IPO, buildout, policy shift), the tail is the set of stocks expected to be dragged along in its wake.

Vertical Pushlive Datacenter Buildoutlive SpaceX Dragon's Wakelive Quantum Computingpre-event Anthropic IPO Watchpre-event OpenAI Recap Watchpre-event

OpenAI Recap Watch

Head: OPENAI · Trigger: OpenAI for-profit recap + IPO · Status: pre-event · 15 members

OpenAI completed its capped-profit → for-profit recap in 2024-25 and is now valued at ~$157B with a possible IPO in 2026-27. Microsoft holds ~49% post-recap. Pull-along stocks: MSFT (direct stake + Azure exclusive), AAPL (Apple Intelligence fallback partner), chip suppliers (NVDA, AMD, TSM, MU, AVGO), colocation (DLR, EQIX), power (CEG, VST). Inverse: Anthropic-stack public proxies.

🔑 Ownership & Cap Table private — best-effort from public reporting

OPENAI is pre-IPO. Below: direct equity holders, plus the public-traded funds that give retail investors exposure.

Direct Holders
HolderTypeStake %~$B
Microsoft Corporation
~49% economic interest post-recap; capped-return mechanics may convert at certain thresholds.
strategic 49.00% $76.93
Sam Altman + leadership team
Founder + leadership equity post-recap; was famously $0 pre-2024.
founder 7.00% $11.00
Employees (option pool)
Substantial option pool; periodic tender offers provide liquidity.
employee pool 13.00% $20.41
Thrive Capital
Led Oct 2024 $6.6B round at $157B.
vc 7.00% $10.99
Khosla Ventures
Vinod Khosla early backer (2019).
vc 3.00% $4.71
Reid Hoffman (Greylock / personal)
Early board member + personal investor.
vc 2.00% $3.14
Sequoia Capital vc 3.00% $4.71
Tiger Global / Coatue / Andreessen
Late-stage syndicate.
vc 5.00% $7.85
Founders Fund + Y Combinator
Y Combinator was 2015 incubator + first cheque.
vc 3.00% $4.71
SoftBank Vision Fund
Largest single check in Oct 2024 round ($1.5B).
vc 4.00% $6.28
Nvidia (direct stake)
Participated in Oct 2024 round; small percent of total.
strategic 1.00% $1.57
Apple (announced but withdrew)
Apple was reportedly part of Oct 2024 round but withdrew before close. Still a partnership stakeholder.
strategic 0.00% $0.00
Other VCs + secondary holders vc 3.00% $4.70
Public-Fund Proxies (how retail gets exposure)
VehicleTickerAlloc %
Microsoft (public proxy)
~49% economic interest in OpenAI — the cleanest public retail proxy.
MSFT
Nvidia (public proxy)
Small direct stake + every OpenAI training run is NVDA revenue.
NVDA
Apple (public proxy)
Apple Intelligence partnership — Apple's only AI fallback partner today.
AAPL
Oracle (public proxy)
Stargate equity partner — OpenAI's $500B mega-DC consortium.
ORCL

Head1

Sym Company Wake Beta Price Ratio 1D % 7D % YTD % Rationale
OPENAI OpenAI 1 1.00 Private head — pre-IPO; no quote.

Pre-IPO Proxies2

Sym Company Wake Beta Price Ratio 1D % 7D % YTD % Rationale
MSFT Microsoft Corp. 1 0.95 $380.32 1.00× ▼ -0.79% ▼ -2.60% ▼ -19.58% Largest external owner (~49% post-recap, capped-return mechanics); Azure exclusive cloud.
AAPL Apple Inc. 2 0.75 $314.91 0.83× ▲ 0.49% ▲ 2.03% ▲ 16.20% Apple Intelligence partnership — OpenAI as ChatGPT fallback in iOS 18+.

Core Peers4

Sym Company Wake Beta Price Ratio 1D % 7D % YTD % Rationale
NVDA NVIDIA Corp. 2 1.30 $201.47 0.53× ▼ -1.30% ▲ 3.41% ▲ 6.68% Primary chip supplier for OpenAI training/inference clusters.
AMD Advanced Micro Devices 3 1.20 $553.37 1.46× ▲ 6.95% ▲ 6.87% ▲ 147.63% Second-source MI300/MI350 option.
MU Micron Technology 3 1.25 $1,017.94 2.68× ▲ 7.29% ▲ 4.34% ▲ 222.73% HBM3E for OpenAI infrastructure.
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) 3 1.00 $444.04 1.17× ▲ 1.61% ▲ 2.27% ▲ 38.93% Foundry for OpenAI's rumored custom chip.

Picks & Shovels4

Sym Company Wake Beta Price Ratio 1D % 7D % YTD % Rationale
AVGO Broadcom Inc. 3 1.05 $401.16 1.05× ▲ 3.21% ▲ 11.29% ▲ 15.40% Custom silicon partner for hyperscaler-class OpenAI infra (rumored).
DLR Digital Realty Trust 3 0.90 $179.61 0.47× ▲ 1.88% ▲ 3.64% ▲ 15.86% DC capacity provider.
EQIX Equinix Inc. 3 0.90 $1,035.99 2.72× ▲ 1.97% ▲ 3.39% ▲ 35.58% Interconnect for multi-region inference.
VRT Vertiv Holdings 4 1.25 $328.21 0.86× ▲ 3.27% ▲ 9.21% ▲ 86.89% Liquid cooling for training racks.

Adjacent Plays3

Sym Company Wake Beta Price Ratio 1D % 7D % YTD % Rationale
CEG Constellation Energy 4 1.10 $247.72 0.65× ▲ 1.31% ▲ 3.54% ▼ -32.36% Nuclear baseload — MSFT/OpenAI signed Three Mile Island restart deal.
ORCL Oracle Corp. 4 0.95 $146.21 0.38× ▲ 4.07% ▲ 4.23% ▼ -25.29% Stargate equity partner (OpenAI mega-DC consortium).
VST Vistra Corp. 4 1.15 $158.13 0.42× ▲ 2.13% ▲ 4.68% ▼ -4.30% Texas + nuclear power.

Hedges1

Sym Company Wake Beta Price Ratio 1D % 7D % YTD % Rationale
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. 5 0.70 $353.34 0.93× ▼ -2.37% ▼ -1.83% ▲ 12.12% Inverse exposure — if OpenAI consolidates AI share, GOOGL Gemini drag.

Ratio column: member price ÷ MSFT $380.32 (head price; falls back to closest proxy when head is pre-IPO).

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